Big questions about the future of the Patriots were raised this week, primarily about how the dynamic of the locker room changed this year. As I said yesterday, it was another in a long line of “Is the dynasty over?” articles. Although every organization deals with the issues raised, Patriots fans have to admit one thing:
The end of the Belichick-Brady era will almost certainly happen within the next two years.
Brady can claim he wants to play until 45 all he wants, the numbers are against him. He’s already entered lightly treaded territory as only three other QBs have started at least 32 games after age 40:
Brady turns 41 this offseason. Here is every pass by a QB aged 41 or older:
Note: This table is embedded so will show Brady’s numbers since age 41
Warren Moon is the only QB who has ever had an above average season at age 41. Only three men in the history of the NFL have started more than 10 games once they turned 41. The numbers are overwhelmingly against Brady, no matter how great he is now and how much sports science has advanced.
Even more frightening is how most QB careers end. Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly all had above average or better seasons the year before their skills declined precipitously. They didn’t have a slow decline; one season they simply couldn’t play anymore. The closest comparison (in terms of success at age 40) is Brett Favre, who had his best season in 2009 while playing for the Vikings. He even played well in the playoffs, on the cusp of going to another Super Bowl. The next year, he had more interceptions than touchdowns and couldn’t play anymore.
All of this means the Patriots took an enormous risk trading Jimmy Garoppolo. Once they made that move, they committed to Brady as the only option entering 2018. Garoppolo showed promise in his two starts and knew the offense well. He prepared to be an NFL QB and showed as much as he ended the 49ers season on a high note. So what should have the team done?
There are two excellent examples – the late-80’s into early-90’s 49ers and the mid-2000’s Packers.
The Late-1980s 49ers
Joe Montana and Steve Young co-existed on the 49ers for SIX seasons. Of course this was the pre-salary cap NFL, but they had a QB competition the year of their 3rd Super Bowl championship in 1988 and then went on to win a 4th. The argument that Brady and Garoppolo couldn’t work together for the rest of this season is flawed since the 49ers survived when Montana was clearly still playing well. In fact, Joe Montana was coming off his best season to that point in 1987. Once Montana was injured in the 1990 NFC Championship, the team committed to Young. Montana went on to have a couple of good seasons in Kansas City and the 49ers achieved a 5th Super Bowl championship behind Young.
The Mid-2000s Packers
In the case of the Packers, Brett Favre just led the team to the NFC championship in 2007. He retired during the offseason but had a change of heart. Instead of staying with their marquee player, the Packers decided to trade him and keep Aaron Rodgers. Favre went to the Jets and then the Vikings where he went to the NFC championship again in 2009. Rodgers, on the other hand, won the Packers their 4th Super Bowl championship in 2010.
The 49ers extended their dynasty seven years by moving on from their marquee player. The Packers returned to the Super Bowl and have seven 10 win seasons with Rodgers at the helm. Bill Belichick tried to make a transition happen and, considering history, chances were good that Garoppolo was going to be the heir. Unfortunately, Tom Brady was Tom Brady as he defied probability again by continuing to excel at age 40.
Belichick’s Legacy
Belichick is keenly concerned with his legacy. He knows that people question who is responsible for the Patriots dynasty. Belichick wants to show he can succeed without Brady and he also wants to retire with the team able to continue its extended success. Bill Walsh receives the credit for the 49ers dynasty even though George Seifert coached for 8 years with two Super Bowls following Walsh’s 10 years and three Super Bowls.
Long story short, the Patriots should have kept Garoppolo and traded Brady after the season.
With the end of Brady’s career so close, expect Belichick to draft a QB in the first round this year. He has some flexibility to move up using the second round pick from San Fransisco and this will give the Patriots a player under the team’s control through Brady’s age 45 season. This will benefit the salary cap however the player selected may not be the long term answer. Will that player be more like Aaron Rodgers or Mark Malone? Belichick took a huge risk to focus the team for a Super Bowl run this season – will he successfully find Brady’s replacement? Only time will tell.